The NFL Draft is a day away. For teams in a rebuild, this could be when they get their franchise player. For those who had a good run last year, this is a time to ensure long-term success. While there have been plenty of late-round and undrafted stars like former Chargers legend Antonio Gates and Buccaneers’ QB Tom Brady, it is without question that the first round has the most stars in the draft. I decided to use the last two drafts to see which teams are the best at finding quality players in the first round. To do so, I graded each player on a -5 to 5 scale. Note that Indianapolis, Chicago, and the LA Rams didn’t have a first-round pick in either year, so they are omitted.
1: San Francisco 49ers: 6 points – 2019 DE Nick Bosa (5), 2020 DL Javon Kinlaw (-2), 2020 WR Brandon Aiyuk (3)
The Niners struck gold with Nick Bosa, who, like his brother Joey, has been a terror for opposing QBs in his first two seasons. The biggest question is if 2020 first-rounder Brandon Aiyuk can be a solid #2 receiver. He has been a reliable receiver for the 49ers and is also one who can move the sticks (42 out of 60 of Ayuik’s receptions went for first downs), but I don’t think he is WR1 potential. However, partnered with a receiver like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Allen Robinson, he could be a very efficient #2 as defenses will not be so focused on him. The Niners had big hopes for Javon Kinlaw, but he has been underwhelming as a pass rusher with just two sacks.
T-2: Dallas Cowboys: 5 points – 2020 WR CeeDee Lamb (5)
The Cowboys had one pick last year and none the year before. However, they got a pro-bowl caliber talent in CeeDee Lamb, probably the second-best receiver in the 2020 draft behind the future Hall of Famer, Justin Jefferson. Despite playing with four different QBs, and missing a few games, Lamb was just short of the 1000 yard mark. Lamb was greatest when playing in the slot and racked up a league-leading nine receptions of 15 yards or more against zone defenses when he was in that position. The only place I think he needs to improve is his yards after catch, as he averaged 0.1 yards less than expected compared to Jefferson’s 1.9 yards more than expected.
T-2: Denver Broncos: 5 points – 2019 TE Noah Fant (2), 2020 WR Jerry Jeudy (3)
The Broncos had quite a bit of success with their 1st round picks. Fant has been a reliable option for young QB Drew Lock. I think he has not been as much of a red zone threat as the Broncos would’ve liked, as he ended the season with just three touchdowns. However, he is a great route runner, averaging 3.5 yards of separation, and gets an average of 1.3 YAC more than expected, both of which are higher than Travis Kelces. Jeudy has shown that he can be a strong deep threat receiver; however, I don’t think he was as much of an X-factor as Lamb and Vikings’ rookie, Justin Jefferson and he struggled with drops (only 46% catch percentage), which is why he has a three and not a five.
T-2: Washington Redskins: 5 points – 2019 DE Montez Sweat (5), 2019 QB Dwane Haskins (-5), 2020 DE Chase Young (5)
The Redskins have added two beasts to their D-line in the last two years. Both Sweat and Young have been stars from their first game and have helped make the Washington front seven one of the most feared in the NFL. Additionally, both Sweat and Young were both in PFF’s top 100 players list. However, their grade is tainted by the selection of Dwayne Haskins. Haskins has been one of the biggest busts in the NFL, mainly due to his inconsistent play and off-field and character issues, and the Redskins wisely cut him before the end of this season.
T-2 New York Jets: 5 points – 2020 OT Mekhi Becton (4), 2019 DL Quinnen Williams (1)
The Jets have drafted surprisingly well in the first round for a team that has struggled so badly. Williams has been exceptional, but I don’t think the Jets really needed him at that stage. The Jets didn’t have a single player in the top 50 for yards, targets, or receptions. This could have been avoided if the Jets had gotten a good receiver in 2019. Becton has already become a top lineman in the league, and I think he has done a phenomenal job. He received the second-highest grade from PFF for rookie tackles and was on the Pro Bowl ballot. I believe in a year or two, he could be headed to the Pro Bowl.
T-6 Baltimore Ravens: 4 points – 2019 WR Marquise Brown (3), 2020 ILB Patrick Queen(1)
The Ravens have gotten some excellent talent in the last two years. Last year, they found a true WR1 in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. The second-year player has been a good offensive piece, but he hasn’t been utilized enough to justify the Ravens using a first-round pick on him as he was 48th in targets last year. Queen has shown flashes of talent but has been a very sloppy tackler. I don’t think Queen will ever become an excellent cover linebacker (his PFF grades for run defense and pass coverage were 29.0 and 30.2, respectively), but he could be a good pass rusher in the Ravens’ blitz-heavy defense.
T-6 Cincinnati Bengals: 4 points – 2020 QB Joe Burrow (5), 2019 OT Jonah Williams (-1)
The Bengals have been very focused on the offensive side of the ball lately. Williams has been good but has only played ten games in two seasons. He missed his entire rookie year after getting hurt in OTAs and then struggled with injuries this year as well. If he can stay healthy, this could be an excellent pick. If not, it could be disastrous. Burrow, however, was phenomenal in his rookie year as he was on pace for over 4250 yards which would have put him less than 100 yards away from Andrew Luck’s rookie record before a knee injury ended his season. If these two develop nicely and stay healthy, they could be the core of the offense.
T-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4 points – 2020 OT Tristan Wirfs (5), 2020 Devin White (-1)
The Buccaneers had high hopes for Devin White, who was touted as the best ILB in the Draft. However, he hasn’t been the dominant force the Buccaneers hoped would replace veteran LaVonte David. He’s one of the best pass-rushing off-the-ball linemen but has been hopeless in coverage and let in a staggering 87.8% of targets against him last season. Like Mekhi Becton, Wirfs has already catapulted himself into a top 10 tackle and had the highest PFF grade for rookie tackles at the end of the season. There’s not much wrong about his game and I expect him to continue to develop into a HOF-caliber tackle.
T-9 Kansas City Chiefs: 3 points – 2020 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (3)
The Chiefs were a team that didn’t need any improvements in 2020. I think Edwards-Helaire was a bit of a reach, and his production has justified that. The rookie finished with 0.29 yards less than expected, which was the 11th worst of running backs with at least 85 attempts, and opposing defenses put eight men or more in the box on just 9.39% of snaps. I think the Chiefs should have considered trading down and getting offensive line depth instead.
T-9 Cleveland Browns: 3 points – 2020 OT Jedrick Wills (3)
The Browns got an excellent blocker in Wills. The Browns needed a quality lineman to replace Joe Thomas, and they got exactly that in the former Alabama tackle. He is excellent in both the run game and in pass protection, but he did have a league-high 11 penalties. While some people may find that concerning, I feel he can clean up his game and become one of the best tackles in the NFL.
11 Buffalo Bills: 3 points – 2019 DT Ed Oliver (3)
The Buffalo Bills have a potential future 1st team all-pro in defensive tackle, Ed Oliver. The ninth overall pick in 2019 has been a big part of the Bills’ front seven. Don’t expect him to be the next Aaron Donald because his pass rush skills are average but instead, expect him to chew up blocks and plug running lanes on the front line. In a few years, he could be a premier defensive tackle similar to the likes of Philly’s Fletcher Cox and Baltimore’s Calais Campbell.
T-12 Carolina Panthers: 1 point – 2019 DL Brian Burns (4), 2020 DL Derrick Brown (-3)
The Panthers have been very focused on their D-line in the past years. Brian Burns has been a phenomenal player, who I think will only get better in the next year or two. He ranked top ten in sacks and fumbles for edge rushers, even with him playing more like a defensive tackle than an end. Brown has been a good player in the pass rush department, but his run defense leaves plenty to be desired (PFF ranked him 77th in run defense). I don’t think he is anywhere close to justifying going seventh overall; he’s a late second-rounder at best.
T-12 Pittsburgh Steelers: 2 points – 2019 LB Devin Bush (2)
The Steeler defense was rather bad in 2019, and the reason that changed is partly thanks to this man. Bush came to a Steelers team that was all about rushing the passer and didn’t care much about playing coverage. The Michigan alum looked very strong during his rookie year, where he racked up 109 tackles and two interceptions. Many said he was even better than Devin White, who went fifth overall. Regardless, the addition of Bush, along with Steven Nelson and Minkah Fitzpatrick, has brought the secondary up to par with the Steelers’ ferocious pass-rush.
14 Arizona Cardinals: 2 points – 2020 S Isaiah Simmons (-3), 2019 QB Kyler Murray (5)
The Cardinals got their franchise QB in Kyler Murray, which is what you would expect from the number one overall pick. Murray has been a Pro Bowl caliber dual-threat quarterback, and his PFF grade beat-out superstars like Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. I think he could develop into a very dangerous player. Simmons looked like a clear bust at the beginning of the season but has played better down the stretch and proven that he can make plays. If he can be more consistent, he could be a good asset in the secondary, but I’m not convinced that he can keep up his good form.
15 Green Bay Packers: 1 point – 2020 QB Jordan Love (-5), 2019 LB Rashan Gary (3), 2019 S Darnell Savage (3)
The Packers got two outstanding players on defense. Gary has been a good pass rusher with seven sacks on the year. Savage has turned out to be one of the best young safeties in the NFL, and this year he got 75 tackles and four interceptions, both very high numbers for a safety. However, the Packers reached way too far to get Jordan Love. I thought Love was a mid-second rounder to early third-rounder at best, and especially with Jalen Hurts on the board and Aaron Rodgers playing for a bit more, I don’t get this pick.
T-16 Minnesota Vikings: 0 points – 2020 WR Justin Jefferson (5), 2020 CB Jeff Gladney (-3), 2019 C Garrett Bradbury (-2)
The Vikings have been hit or miss in the first round. In 2019, they took a center in Garrett Bradbury. Despite playing all 32 games of his short NFL career, Bradbury has been mediocre. According to PFF, his 5.1% pressure rate was 34th out of 36 centers. Gladney was also underwhelming. While he did have 81 tackles, he also had 21 missed tackles, which is not NFL level. However, the Vikings did get a generational talent in Justin Jefferson, who could be the face of the NFL in a few years. He finished fourth in receiving yards and tied for the most receptions of 20 yards or more.
T-16 Detroit Lions: 0 points – 2019 TE TJ Hockenson (4), 2020 CB Jeff Okudah (-4)
The Lions have found an above-average franchise tight end in TJ Hockenson. The second-year tight end finished third among tight ends in yards and fourth in receptions last year. This is even more helpful when you’re a team that will be searching for a new QB in the near future because it’s no secret that young and developing QBs love having a good tight end. Look at Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson or Greg Olsen and Cam Newton. Okudah has been very inconsistent in coverage, often getting beat or messing up coverage, and getting hurt midway through your first season doesn’t help.
T-18 Tennessee Titans: -1 point – 2020 OT Isaiah Wilson (-5), 2019 DL Jeffery Simmons (4)
Like many teams, the Titans have gotten one value player and one they would have rather not taken. Simmons has turned out to be an excellent pick and a focal point of the Titan’s defense. If a player is already above-average in his second year as a pro, there’s a good chance that he will turn into something special. Also, tackling Derrick Henry in practice doesn’t hurt either. Getting Wilson on the practice field was an achievement for the Titans as the first-rounder was on the COVID list twice and dealt with numerous off-field issues. After briefly being with the Dolphins, Wilson was cut without playing a game, and it seems likely that his NFL career is over.
T-18 Jacksonville Jaguars: -1 points – 2020 CB CJ Henderson (-1), 2020 LB K’Lavon Chaisson (-3), 2019 DE Josh Allen (3)
The Jaguars have a few players they would like to see improvement in. Henderson showed flashes of greatness but was hampered by injuries. Chaisson also had a few good games but was unable to contribute much. While the Jaguars did get a promising talent in Josh Allen, he injured his knee in the middle of last season, and it isn’t certain that he’ll be the same explosive player who racked up 10.5 sacks in his rookie year.
T-20 Atlanta Falcons: -2 points – 2019 OG Chris Lindstrom (4), 2019 OT Kaleb McGary (-3), 2020 AJ Terrell (-3)
The Falcons got only one value lineman in 2019, despite using two first-round picks to try to keep Matt Ryan’s jersey a bit cleaner. Lindstrom has been excellent and was probably the best offensive lineman of his draft class. He has already become a top-3 lineman, in my opinion. However, the same can’t be said about McGary, and to make matters worse, the Falcons traded up to get him. Terrell has been decent, but I think he needs to be more physical and work on his tackling to be a fixture in the league.
T-20 Houston Texans: -2 points – 2019 OT Tytus Howard (-2)
Howard has precisely what the Texans wanted when he’s on the field. He is a solid tackle who is excellent in the passing game, giving up only two sacks this whole year. However, the problem for him is staying on the field. Howard missed eight games in his rookie season and three this year. If he can stay healthy, he could be an excellent anchor on the Texans’ offensive line.
T-22 Los Angeles Chargers: -3 points – 2020 QB Justin Herbert (5), 2020 DT
Jerry Tillery (-5), 2019 LB Kenneth Murray (-3)
The Chargers did get their franchise QB in reigning OROY Justin Herbert, who had a stellar season where he broke the records for most passing TDs in a rookie year, most total TDs in a rookie year, most completions in a rookie year, and he fell just 39 yards short of Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yards record despite only playing 15 of the Chargers’ 16 games. However, the Chargers have had some woes on the front seven. Tillery could barely stay on the roster, which is something you surely do not want to see in a first-round pick, and while Murray has been a good tackler, he needs to be much more aggressive on the line of scrimmage to be a complete tackling linebacker.
T-22 New Orleans Saints: -3 points – 2020 C/G Cesar Ruiz (-3)
The Saints had only one first-round pick in the last two years, and they took Cesar Ruiz. While he has been a starter for the Saints, he has been inconsistent and gave up a whopping 16 pressures between week eight and week ten, although he did bounce back nicely. I think the fact that Ruiz can play both center and guard doesn’t help much, as center Erik McCoy will probably be around for quite some time. If the Saints really wanted a lineman, they should have either tried to get Wirfs at 13 or waited till round 2 or 3.
T-22 New York Giants: -3 points – 2019 QB Daniel Jones (4), 2019 CB Deandre Baker (-5), 2019 DT Dexter Lawrence (-1), 2020 OT Andrew Thomas (-1)
The Giants got their franchise QB in Daniel Jones, and that’s about it. Baker has been cut after struggling with off-field issues. He is now a backup in Kansas City. Lawrence’s production has been underwhelming for all the hype he created during his stay at Clemson. Thomas has been a decent tackle in the run game, but he has been clueless in pass protection. His 57 pressures allowed were 14 more than any left tackle last season.
T-25 Miami Dolphins: -4 points – 2020 QB Tua Tagovailoa (1), 2020 OT Austin Jackson (-3), 2020 CB Noah Igbinoghene (-5), 2019 DL Christian Wilkins (3)
The Dolphins have one young star on both sides of the ball. Tagovailoa hasn’t been as good as Burrow or Herbert, but I think he will still be the Dolphins’ franchise QB for at least a little bit longer. Wilkins has been excellent in a Miami defense, which has suddenly become one of the best in the league, finishing 6th in solo tackles. Jackson has been okay as a lineman but not extraordinary, and Igbinoghene is far from being starter-worthy, barely getting playing time in his first year.
T-25 New England Patriots: -4 points – 2019 WR N’Keal Harry (-4)
The Patriots tried to get receiver depth with this pick, but Harry has been underwhelming. Harry had minimal impact in his rookie year and hasn’t done much in year two despite being the number one receiver for Cam Newton. His 309 yards look more like a WR3 than a WR1. Time is running out for Harry to make his case to be a starter in the NFL.
27 Las Vegas Raiders: -5 points – 2020 CB Damon Arnette (-5), 2020 WR Henry Ruggs III (2), 2019 DL Clelin Ferrell (-1), 2019 RB Josh Jacobs (4), 2019 S Johnathan Abram (-5)
The Raiders have a few decent players that they drafted. Jacobs can become an All-Pro if he continues to get better. Ruggs has shown that he is an excellent deep threat but needs to work on the shorter stuff. Ferrel has been a starter but hasn’t had the X-factor impact you want from a first-round pick. However, there are two awful picks that the Raiders made. Both Abram and Arnette have struggled with injuries, and both looked utterly clueless in coverage. This has led the Raiders to have one of the worst secondaries in the game.
28 Seattle Seahawks: -6 points – 2020 LB LJ Collier (-3), 2020 LB Jordyn Brooks (-3)
Some may say that the Seahawks have been “drafting for the future,” which is quite reasonable. However, it becomes no longer reasonable when you have a serious chance to win the Super Bowl. Brooks will not be playing much when you have Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright patrolling the secondary, and trading Frank Clark for Collier was just silly. Perhaps the Seahawks could have addressed their secondary woes and repaired the running game, which never really recovered since Beast Mode’s departure.
29 Philadelphia Eagles: -8 points – 2019 OT Andre Dillard (-5), 2020 WR Jalen Reagor (-3)
I thought Reagor would be a star in Philly, but he hasn’t been utilized enough. For a number two receiver, I think the Eagles need to get him more involved as he only got 369 yards. Dillard has been a rather lousy pick. He has been a backup and thus hasn’t had much playing time, which is not a good sign if you are a first-round pick.
